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World Trade Indicator Suggests Continued Modest Recovery in 3rd Quarter: WTO

2017-08-08 18:20:21

The latest World Trade Outlook Indicator points to global merchandise trade growth that will continue to strengthen in the third quarter of 2017, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said Monday.

 

Meanwhile, global export orders also show signs of flattening, which could mean that upward momentum in trade growth may have peaked, the WTO cautioned.

 

If this is the case, trade growth would be expected to moderate later this year.

 

These results are slightly stronger than the WTO's most recent trade forecast of April 12, which anticipated moderate trade growth this year after weak expansion in 2016.

 

The latest reading of 102.6 is higher than the previous reading of 102.2 issued in May this year, suggesting sustained momentum for trade growth, said the WTO in a statement.

 

Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above trend growth, while those below 100 indicate the reverse.

 

Strong performances in air freight, export orders and container shipping are balanced by weaker results in other indices.

 

Results for agricultural raw materials and electronic components trade have been weaker, but both indices have turned up recently.

 

At the same time, weak growth in automobile production and sales is a cause for concern as it may signal weakening consumer confidence worldwide, said the report.

 

The WTO said the outlook indicator is not intended as a short-term forecast, although it does provide an indication of trade growth in the near future.

 

Its main contribution is to identify turning points and gauge momentum in global trade growth.

 

It said the indicator complements trade statistics and forecasts from the WTO and other international organizations.